Edwards tests readiness for the ‘Big One’

California has been waiting under the shadow of the next major earthquake, a catastrophic event often called the Big One, for generations. No major seismic event has ruptured the state's primary fault lines since the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, which registered at magnitude 7.8, and the 1857 Fort Tejon quake, a magnitude 7.9.

While this prolonged quiet period brings a temporary sense of relief, seismologists warn that the calm is deceptive. The state's most authoritative forecast, the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, estimates a 7% chance that a massive earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or larger will strike California within the next 30 years. Although that percentage may seem small, experts consider it an exceptionally high risk.

To prepare for this inevitable threat, Edwards Air Force Base recently tested its readiness by staging a grueling disaster simulation centered around a mock magnitude 7.8 temblor. The simulated devastation was immediate and severe, damaging 19 base buildings and collapsing two others, leaving 30 people injured and resulting in three fatalities.

Nathaniel Fore, an 812th Civil Engineer Squadron firefighter, reviews a crash rescue vehicle checklist before responding to a simulated damaged building during an earthquake exercise at Edwards Air Force Base, California, Oct. 15. Although the training scenario did not involve active fire, firefighters utilized the vehicle's heavy recovery gear, including pneumatic air lifting bags, mechanical shoring struts and high-tensile steel winches, to stabilize collapsed structures and clear heavy debris. (U.S. Air Force photo by Laisa Leao)

"This exercise demonstrated the importance of our established emergency chain of command during a crisis," said Maj. Sean Murphy, 812th Civil Engineer Squadron commander who directed the emergency operations center during the exercise. "Unit control centers quickly identified their specific needs and reported them to group control centers, which consolidated the data so the emergency operations center could deliver resources quickly and efficiently."

With surrounding roads declared unsafe and closed, nearly 12,000 military service members, civilian employees, contractors and their families found themselves stranded on the installation overnight. First responders, medical teams and security forces worked alongside specialized command hubs to manage the chaos, transforming unit control centers into critical lifelines to coordinate food, water and emergency shelter.

When travel conditions finally improved the following morning and base leadership released nonessential employees, the focus shifted from immediate survival to recovery, community assistance and long-term household self-sufficiency.

“All residents are encouraged to strengthen household preparedness by maintaining a readily accessible 72-hour emergency kit for sheltering in place and a portable go-bag near an exit or in a vehicle to support rapid evacuation, disruptions to essential services and other emergency events,” said Michael Feyerle, office of emergency management chief for the 812th CES.

According to EM, the 72-hour emergency kit must contain enough resources to sustain a household for at least three days without power or running water. This includes one gallon of water per person per day, nonperishable food that requires no cooking, utility tools, flashlights, portable radios with extra batteries, sanitation supplies and provisions for family pets. For sudden evacuations, the go-bag should be packed with copies of identification, insurance papers, emergency medications, charging cables and basic medical supplies.

Real-time communication remains at the core of any disaster response. During the exercise, officials relied heavily on the AdHoc notification system to deliver localized updates. However, the system depends on users keeping their information current, including both work and personal cellphone numbers and email addresses. Emergency managers advise sponsors are also urged to add contact details for their dependents so entire households receive warnings simultaneously.

While the traditional "drop, cover and hold on" maneuver remains the gold standard for protection during an earthquake, modern technology offers an extra layer of defense. The California Earthquake Early Warning System, powered by the ShakeAlert network, uses deep-ground sensors to detect earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or higher before the shaking is felt. Although the Edwards exercise did not trigger live public alerts because of its simulated nature, a real-world disaster would send instantaneous notifications to registered personal devices, buying precious, life-saving seconds to seek cover before the ground begins to move.

"Survival and our ability to sustain the mission during a crisis begins long before the ground starts to shake," said Laura Shattuck, readiness office director for the 412th Test Wing. "While these exercises are designed to evaluate our response and validate critical processes and emergency procedures, total operational continuity ultimately requires every individual on this installation to be equally ready to act."

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